Senyuan Heavy Industry believes that since 2017, global economic growth has stabilized. Looking forward to 2018, benefiting from the significant recovery in global trade, investment from developed and emerging market countries will expand and the world economy will maintain a steady recovery. In an interview with China Industry News, experts from CCID think that the world industrial growth rate will continue to grow in 2018.
World industrial production will continue to grow
The global economic performance in 2017 was relatively strong, which was higher than the same period in 2016. The US economic data has generally improved, and the economies of Europe have shown great performance. Some Asian economies, represented by China, have maintained steady growth. However, economic growth in many countries remains weak, with inflation in most advanced economies still below target. Commodity exporters have been particularly hard hit. Although the short-term risks are roughly balanced, the medium-term risks are still on the downside. In summary, the global economic growth rate is expected to be around 3.5% in 2018, and the global economy will maintain a steady recovery.
According to experts from Senyuan Heavy Industry, industrial production in the world will continue to grow in 2018.
The global manufacturing industry will grow at a low rate. Both output and new order expansion accelerated to the fastest pace in the past two years. JPMorgan Chase's global manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) rose to 53.5 in October from 53.3, a record high of nearly two years. During the period, 19 of the 48 countries improved PMI, but 27 countries are still contracting, mostly in Asia. Global manufacturing is expected to grow at a low rate in 2018.
Emerging industries will maintain growth in the long run. After the international financial crisis, countries around the world have increased their plans for the development of emerging technologies and industries, and strive to create new economic growth points by developing new technologies and nurturing new industries. Technological hotspots such as artificial intelligence, virtual reality, blockchain, cloud computing, fog computing, and quantum computing have continued. It is expected that in 2018, countries will step up their plans and policies, strengthen their deployment around core technologies, top talents, and standards, and strive to take the lead in a new round of international technology competition.
Global direct investment will grow slightly. According to the Global Investment Trends Monitoring Report released by UNCTAD in October, global foreign direct investment (FDI) is expected to grow by 5% in 2016, reaching nearly $1.8 trillion in 2016, but still lower than 2008 financial The peak before the crisis.
From a regional perspective, FDI inflows in Africa are expected to resume growth in 2017, which will rise to US$65 billion. Asian developing countries will grow 15% to US$51.5 billion, and Latin America and the Caribbean are expected to fall 10% to US$130 billion. The transition economies have grown moderately to around $80 billion, while developed countries have stabilized at around $1 trillion. It is expected to continue to increase to $1.85 trillion in 2018.
Global trade growth will slow down slightly. Looking forward to 2018, trade growth cannot offset the weak growth in the base year; the Fed gradually raises interest rates, the European Central Bank expects the implementation of quantitative easing in the euro zone, monetary policy in developed countries is expected to tighten; China's fiscal expansion and other policies may tighten, To prevent the economy from overheating. Global trade growth in 2018 is expected to slow to around 3.2%.
Industrial growth is clearly differentiated
Experts said that industrial growth in major countries and regions will be differentiated in 2018.
Industrial production in the United States will grow steadily. According to the American Institute for Supply Management (ISM), the ISM manufacturing index for October was 58.7, slightly lower than the expected 59.5. The September ISM manufacturing index was 60.8, the highest since May 2004. In terms of sub-item data, the US ISM manufacturing new order index was 63.4 in October, the previous value was 64.6. The October ISM manufacturing employment index was 59.8, the previous value was 60.3. The October ISM manufacturing price payment index was 68.5, expected 67.8, the previous value was 71.5. . In October, the US Markit manufacturing PMI final value was 54.6, the highest since January. The expected value was 54.5, the initial value was 54.5; the final value in September was 53.1. It is expected that industrial production in the United States will grow steadily in 2018.
Industrial production in Japan will increase slightly. According to Nikkei/Markit data, Japan's manufacturing PMI in October was 52.8, which was at an expansion level for 14 consecutive months. Recent data show that exports and industrial production have declined slightly, but the tight labor market and rising corporate investment will keep the economy on the right track. It is expected that industrial production in Japan will increase slightly in 2018.
Industrial production in the EU will accelerate growth. Markit data showed that the manufacturing PMI of the euro zone rose to 58.5 in October, the highest since February 2011. Industrial production in the EU is expected to accelerate in 2018.
The BRICS industry will continue to expand. The manufacturing performance of the BRICS countries is clearly differentiated. India's manufacturing PMI fell back to 50.3 in October, but it has been expanding for the third consecutive month. China's manufacturing PMI was 51.0 in October, and manufacturing operations have continued to grow for five consecutive months, but the overall situation is still moderate. Russia's manufacturing PMI fell back to 51.1 in October, hitting a four-month low, but has been expanding for the 15th consecutive month. Brazil's manufacturing PMI rose to 51.2 in October, a five-month high. Industrial production in the BRICS countries is expected to continue to expand in 2018.
Industry in ASEAN countries will continue to grow. The ASEAN manufacturing PMI for October was 50.4, up from 50.3 in September and expanded for three consecutive months. Despite strong demand from ASEAN manufacturing, manufacturers have experienced a series of production problems, supply chain efficiency and procurement activity have fallen, and the ASEAN supplier delivery time index has fallen by 1.2 points. It is expected that industrial production in ASEAN will maintain growth in 2018.
Intelligent acceleration of industrial recovery
In recent years, the global economy has been in a low valley, and to a certain extent, it has been affected by the regularity of the economic development cycle. The pace of global economic recovery in 2018 will not be too fast, and the global industrial recovery process will also be hindered by problems such as the overall economic form and overcapacity.
At present, the global coal, oil, natural gas, iron ore, steel, aluminum, glass, cement, shipbuilding, home appliances, automobiles and other industries are seriously over-supplied, and the production capacity of some products is still growing. The global energy surplus is 8%~14%, the steel surplus is 18%~24%, the iron ore is 12%~18%, and the electrolytic aluminum is 15%~20%. Subsidies and other types of support provided by government or government-backed institutions may lead to market distortions that exacerbate global overcapacity and constrain economic development.
Senyuan Heavy Industry said that the new industrial revolution dominated the new manufacturing pattern. With the continuous breakthrough of artificial intelligence, big data, Internet of Things, cloud computing, robotics, 3D printing, biotechnology and other technologies, and the developed countries have launched the “re-industrialization” strategy after the international financial crisis in 2008, the global industrial development model is being Automation is transforming to intelligence. The new industrial revolution will shift from the efficiency of a single social intensive production to the efficiency of demand matching to meet the ever-changing consumer demand under the diversified, fast-food, and personalized consumption trends. The new industrial revolution will impact almost every industrial sector in all countries. The breadth and depth of these changes herald a complete transformation of the production, management, and governance systems. The major manufacturing forces of the global manufacturing forces will also undergo major strategic adjustments.
In response to the new situation of world industrial development in 2018, according to the report of the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, Senyuan Heavy Industry recommended to follow up on the development trend of global manufacturing industry; deepen supply-side structural reform; accelerate the construction of innovative countries; accelerate global industry Chain layout.